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For the 10 races ahead, 566 pledged delegates remain. Say these are divided 50/50 giving each 283 though Obama is favored for all but PA and many states are still allocating based on past primary elections or a caucus. There are only about 334 supers remaining to be allocated. Say these are divided 50/50 giving each 167. This puts Obama over the top, Clinton 100 delegates behind. Does Pelosi know what the uncommitted supers are thinking? She apparently does, saying it will be decided before Denver.
Obama 1414 P + 283 More + 213 S + 167 More = 2077
Clinton 1246 P + 283 More + 248 S + 167 More = 1944
There is rampant speculation among the pundits about the Democratic primary, whether this will run all the way
to the Denver convention with the two contenders exchanging barbs so they destroy each other and the
Democratic party's chances in 2008 in the process. Obama is clearly in the lead, by all counts, and as he
generates enthusiasm in the young and independents, the Democratic party finds registration in the Democratic
party has expanded to new members. Two to three times the usual number have shown up for the primary,
boding well for the general election. Obama also leads Clinton in the polls, and beats McCain by a wider
margin than Clinton in the polls. Thus, the party elders and most super delegates can see the writing on the wall.
Obama would favor "down-ticket" candidates during the general election, increasing the percentage of
Democrats in the House and Senate. Obama would bring independents and cross-over Republicans over, so
they could not vote for McCain, where Clinton would not do this. This is the source of why McCain invariably
beats Clinton in the polls, where Obama invariably beats McCain in the polls.
What is holding the super delegates back from frankly endorsing Obama then? Fear of Clinton rage, which has
shown itself recently when Richardson endorsed Obama and when Pelosi dared to suggest that the will of the
people should prevail. Pelosi was threatened by Clinton's principal backers, who in essence stated that their
money should call the shots. Bill Clinton has played the race card repeatedly, and both Bill and Hillary have
implied that McCain would be a better Commander-in-Chief than Obama. They have shown that they would
conduct a scorched earth campaign, if they were not to emerge as the winner. The party elders have decided on
a path that will limit the Clinton rage. Obama is not likely to win Pennsylvania but will diminish Clinton's win
there. Obama will win big in North Carolina and Oregon, is likely to win in Indiana, and the rest of the states
are a tossup. Thus, he will hold his delegate and popular vote lead, and will continue to rack up delegates from
the caucus states as they continue to allocate delegates at the state level. The Clintons are expected to hold to
their argument that Hillary wins among Democrats in the big blue states, and insist that Michigan and Florida be
allowed to be seated as is from the January illicit primaries.
It is then that the boom will be lowered. The party elders, including Pelosi, Gore, and Dean are aware of which
direction the supposedly undecided super delegates are leaning. Pelosi, as head of the House, listens to their
hand wringing all the time, and as the chair of the upcoming Denver convention gets phone calls from super
delegates not in Washingon DC. She has the counts, and has advised those worried about the Clinton wrath to
hold off so they can all endorse as a block. Rumors of such a block of perhaps 50 or 80 super delegates have
emerged in the past, but the numbers are much higher, the majority of those remaining to commit. When it is
clear that Obama has won more states, won more pledged delegates, and won more of the popular vote, then the
super delegates as a block will put him over the top. Dean has called for an essential super delegate election by
asking all to publicly announce by July 1. Once Obama has more than the 2025 needed, seating Michigan and
Florida are a moot point, and arguing who the nominee should be is also a moot point. With great fanfare the
Democratic party can begin promoting Obama and turning their backs on the Clintons, who will be left talking
to themselves, ignored. This will be sudden death for the Clinton ambitions.